As EU heads of state and government prepare to descend on Brussels for an annual summit to discuss the EU's CO2 reduction commitments and the 'growth and jobs' agenda, a new report warns European leaders about waves of immigration driven by intensifying climate change.
As in previous years, EU heads of state are expected to discuss the economic topics currently affecting the EU and its Lisbon Strategy, re-launched in 2005 by Commission President José Manuel Barroso as a strategy for 'growth and jobs'.
Concerns about turmoil in global financial markets, the strength of the euro and overall growth prospects are likely to feature high on the agenda at the summit.
EU leaders are expected to endorse a code of conduct for sovereign wealth funds amid concerns over increasing foreign purchases of strategic assets (EurActiv 28/02/08 ).
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel
have indicated they will put forward plans to resolve a deadlock over
controversial plans to reduce vehicle CO2 emissions (EurActiv
LinksDossier ).
And language in support of speedy adoption of controversial proposals
on energy market liberalisation (EurActiv LinksDossier ) is likely to
feature in the conclusions as well. Ideally, EU leaders would like to
see agreement reached on the dossier in time for the next European
summit, scheduled for June.
Embracing the targets?
In addition to economic concerns, the bloc's 27 governments are set to
give further backing to an ambitious climate change commitment: to
reduce the EU's CO2 emissions by 20% by 2020 while upping the bloc's
use of renewable energy by 20% during the same period.
Initially made in March 2007, the '20-20-20' commitments were
translated into legislative proposals by the Commission on 23 January
(EurActiv 24/01/08 ).
It is expected that the conclusions finalised during the Spring Summit
will endorse the Commission's proposals following the generally
positive reception of the plans by EU energy and environment ministers.
The EU wants to see the measures finalised before the arrival of a new
Commission and Parliament in 2009 in order to boost the EU's
credibility in international negotiations to agree a global climate
change deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in
2013.
The EU's 20% CO2 reduction target will be upped to 30% if such a deal is in place.
But the process of translating the 23 January proposals into law is not
expected to be without controversy, despite public endorsements.
Potentially divisive haggling and negotiations are likely to
characterise the coming year, as EU states argue over who should
shoulder the greatest 'effort' to reduce industrial CO2 emissions while
building and financing more renewable energy capacity.
Many EU states are also concerned that the climate change agenda being
pushed in Brussels will threaten the competitiveness of their
industries. Discussions on how to prevent 'carbon leakage' are expected
to feature squarely on the agenda of Spring Summit (EurActiv 28/02/08).
The spectre of climate refugees
Even if upcoming negotiations on the 23 January 'package' go smoothly,
there are growing concerns that EU, and even international, efforts
will not be enough to address the potentially catastrophic consequences
of a relentless rise in the Earth's average atmospheric temperatures,
which UN scientists agree is caused by human activitiy in industry,
housing, transport and agriculture.
A new study, to be made public and submitted to EU leaders during the
Spring Summit, warns that by 2020, massive and increasing flows of
refugees could overwhelm the responsive capacity of the international
community, putting global governance at risk, the International Herald
Tribune (IHT) reported.
The study, requested by Javier Solana, the EU's High Representative for
the Common Foreign and Security Policy and Secretary-General of the
Council, points to increasingly severe droughts and loss of crops,
particularly in North and West Africa, where climate change is expected
to lead to the loss of 75% of arable land by 2050.
"Migratory pressure at the EU's borders and political instability and
conflict could increase in the future," according to the document,
quoted by the IHT.
Meanwhile, the 2008 Environmental Outlook published last week (5 March)
by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
found that just over 1% of global GDP growth over the next 20 years is
needed to address the major challenges presented by climate change and
environmental degradation.
"Solutions to the key environmental challenges are available,
achievable and affordable, especially when compared to the expected
economic growth and the costs and consequences of inaction," OECD
Secretary General Angel Gurria said in a statement.
Next steps:
* 13-14 March: Spring European Council, Brussels.
* June 2008: European Council.
* End 2008: French EU Presidency seeks political agreement on climate and energy package.
* Mid 2009: New Commission and Parliament.
* Dec 2009: Major UN climate change conference in Denmark.
Author: EurActiv
